Revisiting Theory of Change (Part II)

Samuel Gerstin
3 min readNov 6, 2019

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In my previous post, I looked to express how a programmatic Theory of Change, in principle, articulates a ‘delivery model’ embodying delivery assumptions (i.e., ‘is this the appropriate model, and how so exactly?’) — thus laying the groundwork for ongoing reflection, adjustment and validation. In concluding, I claimed that in practice many ToCs do not articulate a delivery model, and as such distance program staff from the very reflection and adaptation that is its stated purpose. Hopefully, the contrast was clear.

This post — a short one — will share a visual I developed a couple years back. In sharing, I look again to demonstrate the value of this (often missing) element; that embodying a delivery model is crucial to operationalizing a ToC.

The original motivating factor for this visual should be familiar: program design.

While Theories of Change are, ostensibly, the star of program design, reality is more nuanced. From my experience, several scenarios can play out: 1) a ToC is already established in the donor solicitation and more or less copied over to program design; 2) a ToC is left as one of the final elements of program design (and handed over to MEL staff); 3) a ToC is articulated upfront by a lead technical writer but not necessarily revisited throughout design; 4) a participatory ToC design session or workshop is administered at some point. As we can imagine, ToC quality tends to increase as we move down the line; an open design session is more likely to generate a definitive delivery model than the copy-and-paste scenario.

However, even if a program carves out time and resources for a design session, there is the risk of not ending up with a definitive ToC. Groups can find it difficult to balance between what is proffered — ideas, problems, reminders and ‘let’s not forgets’ (everybody wants a word in, after all) — and what ends up resolved as a concrete scope and sphere for program delivery. Participants leave the room somewhat confused, lacking a sense of accomplishment, and newly stressed over other nagging design deliverables.

Some organizations hire consultants (read: professional facilitators) to walk staff through ToC design; others send their staff to attend ToC trainings. More likely, an organization cannot make this significant investment.

The visual below is meant to be an aid to program staff faced with an upcoming design. Whether the experience will be a daylong workshop, or mere cut-and-paste, this visual can serve as a reality check, a reminder of the key ingredient of a ToC…and in this sense, help strengthen them.

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